The investigation of fire growth in dwellings based on stochastic analysis
Fraser-Mitchell, Jeremy N.
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Two fire growth models for dwellings (3 realms) have been developed using a stochastic approach. The first is based on probability tree analysis and the fundamental work of Aoki  and Ramachandran . The second one is a typical Markov approach to the problem. A state transition model was built in order to provide the appropriate transition probabilities needed by the two models and a known deterministic mainframe (CFAST 3.1.6) was used in order to close the set of equations in the probabilistic model. New criteria for the definition of the mean time spent in each of the fire stages - 1) fire confined to room or area, 2) fire spread beyond room or area. 3) fire extinction or burn-out) - are proposed and, finally, results from both approaches are compared to each other and with previous analysis. The present models make an attempt to combine the randomness of stochasticity with the accuracy of a deterministic model based on the use of physical laws. As part of a probabilistic fire risk assessment tool, the models can be used to provide information for fire growth in buildings and be combined with a risk to life model to predict the risks to a human being in a fire situation.